A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
